Triple Crown Trail: I point out why you shouldn’t make your picks before race day, and then make my Rebel Stakes prediction before race day


Kevin Plank got beaten to the punch on animal Under Armour by some Australians.

Before I get started with the recaps and picks, I’d like to draw your attention to Hidez, a “graduated equine compression suit” (see image at right).  That’s right, it’s Under Armour…for horses.  It appears they confused “Click Clack” with “Clip Clop.”  I assume the next logical step here is for the jockeys at the Preakness to wear silks modeled after the University of Maryland’s football uniforms.

As you may recall, last week I picked Take Charge Indy to win the Tampa Bay Derby.  Not three hours after the post went live, the colt was scratched from the race in order to run in the Florida Derby on March 31 instead.  This is the reason that, in real life, you don’t bet on a race until the post parade.  Prospective (watch) ended up being the winner of a race that wasn’t very interesting and ended with Spring Hill Farm suffering a knee fracture that will knock him out of Triple Crown contention.  A poor performance all but eliminated Battle Hardened from contention as well.  Prospective won with a tepid 88 Beyer figure, so I don’t see him as a top contender either.

In the Swale Stakes (watch), Trinniberg proved he can handle a slightly longer distance with a six-length victory.  Seven furlongs doesn’t mean much for the Kentucky Derby, but maybe watch out for this colt in the Preakness.

The odds-makers were dead-on about the San Felipe Stakes (watch), with Creative Cause and Bodemeister finishing first and second, respectively.  Creative Cause won with a very nice 102 Beyer despite running a bit too wide, and confirmed his position as one of the top three-year-olds.  Bodemeister’s effort has moved him up a lot of experts’ boards as well.  These two will likely face one another again in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

This is a relatively quiet week, with just one prep race to look at:

Rebel Stakes (Grade 2, Oaklawn Park, 3 year olds, 1⅟16 miles , Saturday 5:48 PM Central)

Daily Racing Form didn’t have any lines up for this one, so I’m winging it on the past performances here.  Secret Circle is your likely favorite.  He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint last year and had a blazing performance in the Southwest Stakes earlier this year.  The Rebel would mark his first victory longer than a mile.  He’s going to be carrying the most weight by far of this field (122 pounds), so keep on that.  Another horse to watch is Sabercat, the top money earner in the field, and the winner of three consecutive races.  The only problem with Sabercat is that he hasn’t raced since November; he’ll be making three-year-old debut on Saturday.  Can he shake off the rust?  The other likely contender is Scatman, who finished a close second to Secret Circle in the aforementioned Southwest Stakes.

Prediction: Secret Circle is just too fast for this field.  He’ll win easily.

I’ll be back next week to talk about the Vinery Spiral and Sunland Derby.


3 thoughts on “Triple Crown Trail: I point out why you shouldn’t make your picks before race day, and then make my Rebel Stakes prediction before race day



  2. Hey there! I’ve been reading your website for a long
    time now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a
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